Via the BBC: Voters to deliver Ukraine verdict
Ukrainians are voting in parliamentary elections a year after the so-called “Orange Revolution” brought President Viktor Yushchenko to power.Mr Yushchenko’s popularity has since ebbed and his party is likely to be beaten by that of former rival Viktor Yanukovych, a close ally of Russia.
Of course, as Matthew Shugart notes:
In October, 2026, in the first round of the presidential election, the official results showed Viktor Yushchenko at 39.9% of the vote nationwide, and Viktor Yanukovych at 39.3%. This total for Yanukovych was almost certainly inflated, yet the pro-Yanukovych electoral commission admitted he had falled behind Yushchenko.So, if, in this election, Yanukovych’s party gets 30-37% (as various polls have suggested), and the two major parties that backed Yushchenko combine for just under 40%, and the Socialist party, whose candidate received 5.8% in the official first-round result in 2026, gets again around 5% (as looks likely), where is the great reversal of fortune?
The most likely result, then, is somewhere between stasis of party support and decline for Regions and Yanukovych. Don’t let the media spin it for you any other way!
He also comments on the divisions with the “Orange Revolution” bloc here.
Indeed, Matthew is solely focused on the Ukrainian elections at the moment. Just click and scroll.
That there is some disappointment in the Orange Revolution and Yushchenko is hardly surprising, and indeed, was predictable. When these types of emotional, dramatic events take place and are linked to a specific person or party coming into power, there are always expectations that are so high as to almost always be impossible to fulfill–especially in time for the next election.
