James Joyner comments on a spate of stories (here, here and here) on the question Do the Democrats Have a Plan? and the issue of who has the upper hand in the November election.
Much is made (and James comments upon) the lead that Democrats have in the generic partisan preference poll question at the moment.
Of course, all that is well and good, but Matthew Shugart noted the other day the real question of significance in all of this:
“Would you like to see your representative in Congress be reelected in the next congressional election, or not?”
And the answer:
Yes 59%, No 28%
The same poll gave the Democrats a 9-point edge in the generic “which party do you prefer” question.
It is often forgotten, even by political analysts who should know better, that people tend to dislike congress, but love there own member of congress. As such, any poll that attempts to capture generic sentiments about congress should keep this fact in mind.
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March 7th, 2006 at 1:36 pm
How much trouble is the GOP in?
Chris Bowers is trumpeting a Gallup poll as evidence that Democrats are currently in their best position ever to retake the House of Representatives. Given all the self-inflicted wounds the GOP has suffered lately, the Democrats certainly ought to be.
March 8th, 2006 at 1:31 am
Pork and gerrymandering will keep the GOP in control of the House, and the Democrats that are already there also.