Via the AP: Lawmakers Set to Receive Iraq Constitution
A Shiite negotiator said Monday a draft constitution would be presented to Iraq’s parliament, but a key Sunni Arab delegate said talk of a deal was premature and he doubted an agreement was possible by the midnight deadline.The main obstacle appeared to be federalism, which the Sunni Arabs oppose.
I have long wondered if the usage of “federalism” in the press is accurate, and have thought for a while that it was not (and Shugart’s post today confirms it). Indeed, what seems to be on the table is a form of confederalism or a strange hybrid of kinda-sorta-federalism with a unitary government–neither of which is a very good idea.
Indeed, this sounds like a potential disaster–but I will think some more on the topic and wait and see what is actually in the document.
In short: the confederal version (a Kurd zone, a Shiite zone and a Sunni zone) is a recipe for breakup, and a Kurd + the rest of Iraq version seems to equal a relatively quick exit for the Kurds, which would cause problems with the rest of Iraq, not to mention Turkey and Iran.
Did they not consult with anyone who knows something about constitution design and institution arrangements? It would appear not.
And at this point I am more prone to believe the negative assessment vis-a-vis getting a draft to parliament, rather than the optimistic one.
Why would allowing the Kurds to have their own independent country be so troubling? Not meant to be snarky, but no one has really explained this convincingly to me before.
Comment by Mark — Monday, August 22, 2024 @ 1:18 pm
Short version: it woudl create a massive international relations problem with Turkey, as a their Kurds would want to secede.
Also, depending on the borders in question, a lot of Iraq’s oil wealth would leave Iraq with the Kurds–which wouldn’t make the rest of Iraq very happy.
In both cases you are talking about the potential for substantial violence.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Monday, August 22, 2024 @ 2:07 pm
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