Politics is a funny thing. To wit: the tragic slaying of four Seattle police officers (an event described in one ABC News story as as “assassination” and executions in another) by the now late Maurice Clemmons may have a very direct effect on the political aspirations of Mike Huckabee.
When I first heard that Clemmons had been granted clemency by then-governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, it struck me that this could very well be his Willie Horton moment (and I am not the only one, apparently). Willie Horton was serving a life sentence for murder when he was granted a weekend furlough in 1986 from which he did not return. Whilst out of prison he committed assault, armed robbery, and rape. He became the subject of a famous anti-Michael Dukakis commercial during the 1988 campaign. The commercial is noteworthy for a number of reasons. In terms of the annals of campaign advertising, the commercial is of interest because it was a key example of independent expenditures being used to support a presidential campaign. Further, it also was a key example of using the then-nascent cable news channels to smart effect: i.e., make a controversial ad and then have the controversy surrounding the ad propel into onto repeated free airings on cable news. Beyond that, the specific imagery used in the ad was controversial, specifically questions regarding race and what the ad’s exact goals where. At a minimum, it allowed the Bush campaign to paint Dukakis as soft on crime (part of their general strategy of painting him as a Massachusetts liberal).
Now, Huckabee has faced accusations of being too soft on crime before1 but the Clemmons case is far higher profile and his crimes are far more gruesome. Not only is Huckabee receiving a great deal of criticism now from conservative commentators (see here), but these events are ripe for campaign commercials during the 2012 primaries (should Huckabee choose to run). Huckabee already has been seen in some conservative circles as too soft in general and this event will not help him in that regard. And within the GOP base, being considered soft on crime is extremely problematic (indeed, in US politics in general) and would lead to extrapolation on issues such as national security.
I never thought Huckabee had a serious chance of winning the nomination, and this situation makes such an outcome even more unlikely.
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