USAT notes: Democrats at risk in 2010 shift from offense to defense, which hardly should be a surprise. The historical patterns would indicate that that the Democrats will lose seats during next year’s mid-term elections. Indeed, understandings of this fact is part of what is driving the current health care agenda, as the current Democratic seat counts are almost certainly the highest that the Obama administration will see in its first term (and, perhaps, into a potential second term):
The Democratic shift from offense to defense is partly a product of history: After World War II, the party of a first-term president has lost an average of 16 congressional seats in midterm elections, says Cook, editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report. And 2010, he says, is shaping up as even more challenging for the Democrats.
However, losing seats and losing control of the legislature are two different things. There are currently 258 Democrats and 177 Republicans in the House (or +81 for the D’s). There is no way, barring some unforeseeable political cataclysm, for the Democrats to lose enough seats to lose the House. The Senate is divided 58 D, 40 R and 2 I (who caucus with the Ds).
Based on analysis from the Cook Political Report, there appear to be 14 toss-up seats held by Democrats (and one that leans GOP). If the Dems win all of those and pick up one more they would match the post-WWII average for seats lost by the president’s party during his first mid-term election. This would, indeed, be good for the Reps. It would not, however, be the loss of the House. Indeed, the Dems would have to lose roughly two and a half times that number to lose the House.1 This strikes me as rather unlikely.
Here’s the list:
Where GOP could pick up House seats
Democratic seats considered by the non-partisan Cook Political Report to be the most vulnerable:
Tossups (14)
State District Incumbent
Alabama 2nd Rep. Bobby Bright
Arkansas 2nd Rep. Vic Snyder
Colorado 4th Rep. Betsy Markey
Florida 8th Rep. Alan Grayson
Idaho 1st Rep. Walt Minnick
Kansas 3rd Rep. Dennis Moore{+1}
Maryland 1st Rep. Frank Kratovil
Mississippi 1st Rep. Travis Childers
New Hampshire 2nd Rep. Paul Hodes{+1}
New Mexico 2nd Rep. Harry Teague
Ohio 1st Rep. Steve Driehaus
Ohio 15th Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy
Pennsylvania 7th Rep. Joe Sestak{+1}
Virginia 5th Rep. Thomas Perriello
Leaning Republican (1)
State District Incumbent
Louisiana 3rd Rep. Charlie Melancon{+1}
Those marked “{+1}” are not running for re-election.
Sphere: Related Content- The Reps need 41 seats to get to 218 and a majority. [↩]
November 25th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
And as far as the policy calculus is concerned, the House will be more left-leaning if Dems retain the majority (likely, as you note) but shed some members (most of whom are by definition in swing and hence relatively moderate districts).
November 25th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
A valid and interesting point.