CNN notes more of Chávez’s belligerent rhetoric:
"Don’t be mistaken, Mr. Obama, and order an overt aggression against Venezuela using Colombia," Chavez said Sunday, in a reference to U.S. President Barack Obama. "Don’t make that mistake, because we are willing to do whatever it takes. Venezuela will never again be a colony."
The question becomes: to whom do we believe this statement is aimed. Is it really aimed at Obama and the United States or to other audiences.
I would argue that the main audience is a domestic one, with a secondary one being regional allies. The shifting of troops to the border and then much bravado is a fairly cheap way to 1) stoke nationalistic feelings, 2) distract from internal problems, and 3) show his allies in the region how tough he is. All of this is to his political advantage without much cost.
Now, an alternative hypothesis is that he is unstable and that these are the rantings of a madman that have to be taken seriously. However, does the record reflect that Chávez is crazy or crazy like a fox? Indeed, the record shows a man who, regardless of what else one might like to say about him, is far from stupid and, more to the point, one who has been know for over a decade for using inflammatory (if not at times outrageous) rhetoric to substantial political gain.
If, by the way, Chávez really did want to attack Colombia, he probably was in a (marginally) better position to do so in 2008 after Colombia engaged in a military strike in Ecuadoran territory. After that event, Chávez ordered troops to the border and made noise about war with Colombia. At that point, at least, he could have made the (granted, tortured) argument that Colombia was engaging in aggressive actions against an ally.
And again: Chávez knows that a) the Colombian military is battle tested, while his is not, and b) the US would be on the Colombian’s side. There is nothing to be gained here by actually going to war. And, if one is paying attention to the specifics of the rhetoric, he is stating that he is preparing for a defensive war against the Yankees, not an invasion of Colombia.
This is all about scoring rhetorical points with specific audiences, not about a real threat of war.
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