While the race has not yet been called, CNN is reporting that with 87% of the vote in that the Democrat, Owens, is leading the Conservative candidate, Hoffman, 49% to 45%.
If Owens pulls out a win it will mean that the Tea Party faction of the GOP that decided to jump ship and back Hoffman over the Republican Scozzafava ended up significantly miscalculating, as the move will ultimately have resulted in turning a Republican district (in terms of its historical affiliation in term of the House) into a Democratic seat.
According to the NYT’s The Caucus, there are still 10,00 absentee ballots left to count. Noteworthy there is that those ballots would have been cast before Scozzafava suspended her campaign.
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November 4th, 2009 at 1:18 am
[...] excessive moderation As Steven Taylor notes, the third-party candidacy by Doug Hoffman in New York’s 23rd congressional district seems to [...]
November 4th, 2009 at 1:20 am
Because, apparently, what the Republican Party needs right now are more Arlen Specters, Jim Jeffords, Licoln Chaffey, etc. Why bother differentiating the GOP when you can assimilate?
November 4th, 2009 at 1:27 am
[...] Lawrence | Wednesday, November 4, 2009 As Steven Taylor notes, the third-party candidacy by Doug Hoffman in New York’s 23rd congressional district seems to [...]
November 4th, 2009 at 1:45 am
Max,
Well, ignoring any caucusing that happens: All the people you mentioned have proven they can win elections for starters.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:13 am
Max,
I would refer you to Chris Lawrence.
Also: the issues of leadership and the ratio of seats on committees is set by the overall partisan mix of the chambers. These things do matter.
November 4th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Lawrence’s argument seems to be “DINOs aren’t that bad for Democrats, and RINOs aren’t that bad for Republicans, therefore Scozzafava wouldn’t have been that bad for Republicans.” I don’t know. For one, Owens will hold office for about a year, and he’ll be campaigning again. Assuming that President Obama’s economists are right, unemployment will still be high next November ( http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/11/business/economy/11jobs.html ). The Democratic Party membership card will be a pretty heavy weight for Owens next year; while the lack of a Democratic Party membership card would have been a strong positive for Hoffman.
One additional Democratic vote in the House of Representatives won’t make a big splash for the next year. Owens missed the vote for the Speaker of the House. His only input will be on particular legislation, and if the district is as purple as people keep claiming it to be, Owens will probably find himself rallying with Blue Dogs and causing Pelosi more headaches than she already has. Especially since he’ll be in reelection mode by January.