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Wednesday, May 20, 2024
By Steven L. Taylor

Several stories of note:


  • Even thought it looks quite likely that Álvaro Uribe will be running for a third term, some potential rivals still appear to be making plans just in case. For example, the most logical successor to Uribe is his now-former Defense Minister, Juan Manuel Santos. Plan Colombia and Beyond notes that the timing of Santos’ resignation appears to have everything to do with presidential politics:
    According to Colombian law, cabinet ministers with presidential aspirations must leave office a year before the presidential election. That deadline is imminent.

  • Also, Boz notes an interview with former Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo in El Tiempo. Fajardo is a member of the Social Indigenous Alliance. Boz predicted in a separate post that Fajarado could conceivably beat Uribe in a head-to-head contest. I must confess, at the moment this seems unlikely. It is true that Fajardo was a very popular mayor and that he has a 45% approval rating v. an 8% disapproval rating (from the poll I noted the other day). Still, besting Uribe is a tall order.
  • Some small pro-Uribe parties are thinking of merging. El Tiempo reports: Formar un solo partido buscan movimientos uribistas minoritarios. The parties in question:
    Convergencia Ciudadana, Apertura Liberal, Partido Verde Opción Centro, Huila y Nuevo Liberalismo, y algunos sectores de Alas-Equipo Colombia.

    I have wondered whether the various Uribista parties would start to merge, and perhaps this will take place with these parties. Interestingly, none of these are not the larger of the pro-Uribe parties, that is: la U, Cambio Radical and, to some degree, the Partido Conservador. Although, really, I would expect all three to remain independent of one another, but have thought that perhaps la U in particular might be able to absorb some of the smaller Uribista parties.

    The breakdown of seats of the parties above are as follows:

    Senate–2006
    Convergencia Ciudadana 7
    Apertura Liberal 0
    Partido Verde Opcion Centro 0
    Huila y Nuevo Liberalismo 0
    Alas-Equipo Colombia 5

    Total: 12

    Chamber–2006
    Convergencia Ciudadana 8
    Apertura Liberal 5
    Partido Verde Opcion Centro 1
    Huila y Nuevo Liberalismo 2
    Alas-Equipo Colombia 8

    Total: 24

    Just going off the 2024 seat counts, a consolidation of these parties (and granted, it sounds as if only some of the Alas-Equipo Colombia folks are onboard), this would make the new consolidated party the fifth largest caucus in the Senate and the 4th largest caucus in the Chamber.

  • El Tiempio reports that the PDA and the PL are working together in an anti-reelection alliance: Para crear alianza contra la reelección, Polo y Partido Liberal definieron sus delegados.

    An electoral alliance would seem to be unlikely, however.

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2 Responses to “More Colombian Electoral Politics”

  • el
  • pt
    1. Fruits and Votes » Prof. Shugart's Blog » Colombia: Reelection to be permitted (again) Says:

      [...] * Update: Steven has some further valuable information about the possibility of mergers of the smaller uribista parties, as well as potential presidential challe…. (I tend to agree with Steven that no challenger would be likely to defeat Uribe.) [...]

    2. PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » More Colombian Electoral … | Colombiat oday Says:

      [...] Read more here: PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » More Colombian Electoral … [...]


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