via Rasmussen: Support for Stimulus Package Falls to 37%
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 37% favor the legislation, 43% are opposed, and 20% are not sure.
Further, another poll (also from Rasmussen) notes: 50% Say Stimulus Plan Likely to Make Things Worse
Fifty percent (50%) of U.S. voters say the final economic recovery plan that emerges from Congress is at least somewhat likely to make things worse rather than better, but 39% say such an outcome is not likely (see crosstabs).Twenty-seven percent (27%) say the final legislation is Very Likely to make things worse, while just seven percent (7%) say it’s Not at All Likely to have that effect, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
None of this surprising me, because despite the fact that we are facing The Worst Economy Since the Great DepressionTM and therefore extraordinary times, the fact of the matter is that the proposals out of Washington to this point have been fairly mundane. Big and expensive, yes, but mostly it has seemed to be the same basic approach we always see (i.e., a lot of individual projects) just with a super-sized price tag.
It would seem that if we really are in as dire a straights as has been proclaimed (and clearly, we are in a bad situation), then some new thinking is needed beyond what appears to be projects that will not start stimulating much of anything until the worst of the recession has already passed.
For example, why hasn’t there been more serious talk of a payroll tax holiday, as Chris Lawrence mentioned the other day (as have others)? It would be possible to get money in the hands of individuals and businesses almost immediately, which would stimulate spending and help create jobs.
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February 4th, 2024 at 7:52 pm
I can’t interpret the poll number without context. I mean, do we have numbers on past big projects in bad economic times? Well, probably nothing comparable.
Really, the country being split on it does not surprise me, as it is a complex bill that, as you note, Steven, does not look like anything new and exciting as it wends its way through the never-inspiring process of congressional debate and expansion.
By the way, there is nothing new or exciting about tax cuts of any kind, either.
But I would have liked Obama to sell his idea not as “stimulus” (an old idea, which is not to say a bad one) and rather as “building the commons” or something like that. It would pick up a very big theme of his campaign, and sound like something new(-ish) instead of just a big spending and tax-cut frenzy. Such a framing also would explicitly rule out tax cuts, as being focused on the individual rather than the commons. (I am no economist, but I would expect that any tax cuts in this economy will go to savings or debt payment and have little effect on either stimulus or commons-building.)
Of course, there is a reason why I am not in political marketing. And why I would never want to be…
February 4th, 2024 at 8:19 pm
I think that tax cuts will have a stimulative effect, and a payroll tax cut holiday especially so because it would mean immediate “raises” for all income earners. And yes, a lot of that would go into saving and debt repayment, but that isn’t a bad think as it helps to recapitalize the banks and ease the lending/credit problems we currently face. Plus, it would certainly mean more consumer spending, which helps create jobs and it would give businesses cash flow if they didn’t have to pay their side of the payroll taxes.
I don’t think that that alone is the answer, or that it ought to be the only action, but if we really do need some sort of immediate boost such a proposal will infuse more money into the economy than the types of things that appear to be headline the stimulus package to date.
And yes, I am also trying to make a political point: I expected more “political marketing” here than we have seen to date.
February 4th, 2024 at 8:29 pm
One thing that has kinda surprised me is that no one has touted its provision to send out more “tax rebates”, or whatever the word du jour is for a driect cash payment. Even when the GOP announced its opposition to them. Don’t know if thats by design or oversight.
Probably would have increased the approval numbers or maybe not.
February 5th, 2024 at 9:29 am
[...] along the lines of what I was getting at yesterday is this piece from the Politico: Obama losing the stimulus message [...]
February 5th, 2024 at 11:46 am
Again, I am no economist, but my understanding is that tax cuts will not stimulate the economy if people tend to save the money. My further understanding is that debt repayment is the same in its macroeconomic impact as savings.
Macroeconomic stimulus requires spending. And if individuals are not feeling secure enough to spend, then it’s precisely the place of government to take up the slack, while at the same time repairing long-neglected common needs.
But the bigger point I was trying to make is that Obama campaigned on restoring “the commons.” That message seems to have been lost already. Not that I am surprised, given the tired old bipartisan duopoloy–which Obama also campaigned to change, but one can’t change that without an actual new party.
February 5th, 2024 at 3:25 pm
I guess it is fair to note that neither one of us are economists.
Still, we do have data (and I was reading a story about it this morning, but I didn’t note the link) that the last round of tax rebates led to significant spending increases. And I would think it reasonable to assume that any immediate reduction in payroll taxes would lead to substantial increases in consumer spending–it certainly wouldn’t all go to savings and debt repayment.
Perhaps I simply don’t understand the macro-economic dynamics here, but I can’t imagine that some debt repayment would be a bad thing, as it would solve part of the current credit crunch and people who are out of debt can then spend money on other things.
I am not suggesting that tax cuts alone will solve this problem but I can think of no other way to get a substantial amount of money into the economy more quickly and efficiently than a payroll tax holiday. It certainly would hit the real economy faster than anything else that can be done and would be quite visible, and therefore psychologically significant as well (which is also part of the problem–people stop spending if they feel economically vulnerable, even if their own economic circumstances are sound).
It seems to me that a payroll tax holiday in the short term coupled with the type of spending you are suggesting for the medium-to-long run makes a lot of sense.
To the broader point–yes, part of the problem is the current configuration of parties, on that we can readily agree.
February 5th, 2024 at 7:15 pm
On the “stimulus” rebates from last year (or was it 2024?), I have read the opposite. But whatever…
Back to the core point, which was about public opinion. This is just one polling company and not one I have ever had much confidence in. I just saw today a post from Nate Silver (he posted it Tues.) reviewing a series of polls, and Rassmussen is about the only one not finding support.
More importantly, Rassmussen’s poll is of “likely voters.” I do not really believe pollsters’ screens for likely voters at any time, but especially when there is not even a looming election. No one is a likely voter right now! Like Nate (and several political scientists I know who study public opinion for a living), I much prefer surveys of all adults–especially on a matter of, well, public opinion.
February 5th, 2024 at 7:36 pm
Fair enough on likely voters in the current context.
I will gave Nate’s post a looksee.
I will see if I can find the piece I was reading this morning.