PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts

Nate Silver looks at the polls and concludes that the race on Tuesday boils down to five states: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Nevada and he details the scenarios using those five states necessary for an Obama win. He continues:

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada

This strikes me as a reasonable set of conclusions. Further, it illustrates the uphill battle that McCain faces. While there are scenarios in which McCain wins on Tuesday, they all require everything falling his way in a rather improbable way.

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The views expressed in the comments are the sole responsibility of the person leaving those comments. They do not reflect the opinion of the author of PoliBlog, nor have they been vetted by the author.

One Response to “Electoral Scenarios”

Captain D Says:
November 2nd, 2008 at 9:38 pm
Well, however it pans out, one sad fact has come from this election.

I don’t give a crap anymore.

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