The new CBS/NYT poll [PDF] has Obama at 53% and McCain at 39%, for a 14 point differential.
Nate Silver notes why this isn’t a surprise based on recent numbers:
Presently, our best estimate is that Obama has about an 8-point national lead. However, CBS polls have leaned about 3 points more Democratic than the average this year. In other words, our baseline expectation is that a CBS poll should be showing about an 11-point for Obama right now.You wind up to the Obama side of the +/- 3 point margin of error, and that’s how you get to 14 points.
Nate also notes that with third parties included, the poll takes the lead to 12 points.
Of course, I don’t find this to be especially surprising, as I have already noted that I do not see a realistic road to victory for McCain. His last remaining chance to make a serious dent in these numbers is the debate tomorrow night (barring some radical exogenous turn of events) and I really don’t see what he could do in that debate to shift the tide sufficiently in his favor.
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October 15th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Obama 53% – Mccain 39%! Obama said in last speach, that He ll become a president for 8 years: http://www.cortalink.com/?1uyjer44 (full video 25min)
October 15th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Well, 8 years is theoretical max.
As one may recall, the sitting President will have served 8 years once his terms ends…
October 15th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
I’m wondering how much we need to take into account social desirability bias when interpreting these polls?
This struck me when reading an article in today’s Times on how Obama’s race might play differently in polling than when people actually cast their votes.
One of your fellow Alabamans, Steven, was quoted as explaining his skepticism towards Obama: “He’s neither-nor. He’s other. It’s in the Bible. Come as one. Don’t create other breeds.”
No doubt there are lots of hateful idiots like this guy out there–most of whom probably have the social awareness to resist articulating his opposition to Obama in such a crude way.
Is there a large enough number of people who are telling pollsters one thing–but will vote differently when it comes down to it because of internalized racism?
It is pretty easy to follow the McCain capaign’s logic in exploiting this social desirability bias since it is really the only thing they have going for them.
The question is: will it be enough to swing the election their way?
October 15th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Well, since we’re basically talking about the same poll, I have the same problems with this number that I have with the number in the more recent post. My specific problems with this poll can be found in the more recent post about the impact of McCain’s attack ads. Most of them apply to this result, also.
I’m sure Obama is ahead, but I doubt it’s by that great a margin on the national scale. To reiterate what I’ve already said: they’re not giving us the real poll data; it was a small sample size; they have not provided us with the methodology of their weighting of certain responses over others; and both CBS and the NYT have developed – at least in recent history – very little credibility as reliable conduits of information. They will print/air anything that props up the democratic party, and will print/air anything that makes the republican party look bad. A fair-minded person would do well to assume that information provided by these agences without citation is questionable.
At this point if you don’t have a “guilty until proven innocent” approach to CBS and the NYT, you’re either too gullible or too biased to be a fair judge of the quality of information.