Back when I taught American National Government (i.e., American Government 101), I had a unit on public opinion wherein we discussed polling. One of the things I would always point out was that polling was most useful in the context of high information in the public and a fairly simple question with clear choices. As such, it was far easier to get good information on something like an election than it was on a complex public policy proposal.
Here’s a great illustration of the point.
Via Bloomberg: Americans Oppose Bailouts, Favor Obama to Handle Market Crisis
By a margin of 55 percent to 31 percent, Americans say it’s not the government’s responsibility to bail out private companies with taxpayer dollars, even if their collapse could damage the economy, according to the latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll.
And yet, via the Pew Research Center: 57% of Public Favors Wall Street Bailout
By a margin of almost two-to-one the American public thinks the government is doing the right thing in investing billions of dollars to try to keep financial institutions and markets secure. Reacting to initial reports of the federal bailout plan over the weekend, 57% said the government was doing the right thing, while 30% said it was doing the wrong thing.
Well, that clears it up now on what the public wants, yes? Perhaps it means that most people simultaneously think that it is a) not the government responsibility, but b) they are still doing the right thing in taking on the task.
Both polls do agree, however, that most people ain’t none too happy. The Bloomberg/LAT poll:
Six weeks before the presidential election, almost 80 percent of Americans say the U.S. is going in the wrong direction, the biggest percentage since the poll began asking that question in 1991.
And Pew:
At the same time, only 19% of the public believes that the government is currently doing an excellent or good job in handling the financial problems on Wall Street.
All of which begs the question, of course, as to whom it is that thinks we are on the right track at the moment.
In terms of pure politics, the economic news, not surprisingly, favors the party not occupying the White House (via the Pew poll):
voters favor Barack Obama over John McCain as the presidential candidate best able to address the current financial crisis: 47% favor Obama, while 35% choose McCain. Independents prefer Obama over McCain by a margin of 44% to 30%, while Republicans and Democrats line up solidly behind their party nominees.
Bloomberg/LAT has similar numbers:
Poll respondents say Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama would do a better job handling the financial crisis than Republican John McCain, by a margin of 45 percent to 33 percent. Almost half of voters say the Democrat has better ideas to strengthen the economy than his Republican opponent.Sphere: Related Content
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September 25th, 2008 at 8:15 am
I suppose the conflicting poll numbers could be a reflection that the public is buying the dominant narrative: That the bailout is a bad thing but the alternative would be worse. Me, I don’t buy that premise (not because I think the economy won’t be affected by the bailout, but because I think the long-term effects of the bailout willl be worse than even a long recession in the immediate future), but it seems to me that most people are completely buying that argument.
Think of it this way: I don’t like getting shots, and am against them, but I’ll still get vaccinations because I getting malaria would be worse.