Via Gallup: Obama’s Lead Shrinks to 2 Points.
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September 6th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
So two weeks of conventionating leaves us about where we were beforehand, basically?
September 6th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Really, I think it’s still too early to draw conclusions. What the polls say in a couple of weeks, when both parties have recovered from their bounces, we might have some more useful poll information. I think it hasn’t been long enough for the numbers to normalize.
Still, I hate polls. I hate them. I think we look too long and hard at them. To an extent, I think the polls influence the outcome of elections. I know people who might otherwise vote, and vote McCain, but who are not going to only because they don’t think he can win. And the reason they don’t think he can win? Polls! People shouldn’t be staying home because of pollsters. Pollsters, of all things!
They also give people too much reason to cry foul; when the polls say so-and-so should win, and he/she doesn’t, it means the election must have been rigged, right? There must have been ballot tampering. There is a conspiracy with Diebold. The computers were hacked. It must have been that, because the polls said so-and-so should win!
And, quite often, the polls are wrong. Just plain wrong. Gallup had Kerry winning handily in 2004, the day before the election. They favored him by more than 6 points.
Some believe the pollsters are in conspiracy. I don’t believe that, but I do think we look at these things too often and too hard, and that during elections, the focus of the news media should be on the candidates’ messages and not who is ahead and who is behind. The projections and the predictions are a component of what I hate so much about the way we conduct politics here. Just give us who these people are, and let us decide.
I again think that pastries would be helpful. In my humble opinion, if the pollsters were eating pie during the election season instead of spouting a constant, meaningless stream of who’s-on-first, we would be better off.
September 6th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
This discussion has merit similar to what I think the value of talking about polls is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT17j0YotDg
September 6th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Don’t forget that poll was a tracking poll — each day it conducts a poll, and averages it with the previous 2 days to report the result. This poll covers Sept 3-5. Therefore:
1/3 of the respondents were polled before either the McCain or Palin speeches.
1/3 was polled after the Palin speech but before the McCain speech.
1/3 after both speeches.
Since the maximum gap in this poll was 7-8 points between the conventions, I’m guessing McCain will take about a 4-5 point lead by Monday before sliding back.
However the numbers right now are pretty meaningless. Too much answering the last thing people heard on TV. About this time next week the numbers will become more stable and meaningful. Then whoever is on the short end will be looking for a way to shake up the race by late Sept.
September 6th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
… and Zogby has McCain +4 in a poll totally after the convention
September 6th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
The national polls are irrelevant in this context. What matters is the state polling, and Obama’s electoral vote lead is commanding. McCain has a lot more “lean McCain” states than Obama has “lean Obama” states, and Obama’s have more electoral votes. At this point, from a math point of view, if we give both Obama and McCain their “leaning” states, Pollster has it at 260 Obama to 179 McCain. That’s strong. And Obama has a MUCH stronger GOTV and ground organization than McCain.
Please note that during the Primaries, the Obama campaign didn’t care thing one about the national polls or the national vote total–they were focused on the delegate counts, because that’s what mattered. From what I can tell from the Obama campaign, their General Election campaign is the same–they are focused at the state level, with a ground game. McCain’s campaign isn’t. That’s going to be its downfall.