Via the NYT: Russian Ground Forces Assault Vital Georgian City
Russian tanks and troops moved through the separatist enclave of South Ossetia and advanced on the city of Gori in central Georgia on Sunday night, for the first time directly assaulting a Georgian city with ground forces after three days of heavy fighting, Georgian officials said.
[...]
A senior Western diplomat said it was unclear whether Russia intended a full invasion of Georgia. “They seem to have gone beyond the logical stopping point” to retake the separatist regions, he said.
The advance appeared to answer the question on which the conflict had been pivoting: Would Russia simply occupy the two separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or would it push into Georgia, raising the possibility of a full-scale invasion?
The whole situation is taking on a rather ominous tone. In an interview, former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski said the following:
Zbigniew Brzezinski: Fundamentally at stake is what kind of role Russia will play in the new international system. Unfortunately, Putin is putting Russia on a course that is ominously similar to Stalin’s and Hitler’s in the late 1930s. Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt has correctly drawn an analogy between Putin’s “justification” for dismembering Georgia — because of the Russians in South Ossetia — to Hitler’s tactics vis a vis Czechoslovakia to “free” the Sudeten Deutsch.Even more ominous is the analogy of what Putin is doing vis-a-vis Georgia to what Stalin did vis-a-vis Finland: subverting by use of force the sovereignty of a small democratic neighbor. In effect, morally and strategically, Georgia is the Finland of our day
Happy thoughts, all.
And there is also the oil angle (via the Daily Mail): The Pipeline War: Russian bear goes for West’s jugular
After a day of heightening international tensions, Georgian leaders claimed that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports oil from the Caspian Sea to Turkey, had been attacked. But it is thought the bombs missed their target.
The pipeline is 30 per cent owned by BP and supplies 1 per cent of the world’s oil needs, pumping up to a million barrels of crude per day to Turkey.
If true, one suspects that we can kiss the recent decline in oil prices goodbye, at least until the crisis passes.
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This is deeply troubling to me for many reasons. I have 8 friends with whom I correspond, whom I met while serving in the Army, who are officers in the armies of Latvia, Lithuania, Georgia, and Estonia. Haven’t heard from any of them in months and my emails have not been returned.
I am wondering what the implications of Russia’s actions will be not just on Georgia but on its neighbors, some of whom are very good (if small) friends to the United States, and all of whom have reasons to be fearful and suspicious of Russian aggression, be it real or perceived. Certainly there is a history of abuse by Russia on its Baltic neighbors and that abuse has not been forgotten.
My concern is whether the actions we’ve seen recently reflect a larger re-alignment of policy that will see Russia returning as the bully and intimidator of its neighbors that it has been in the past. If so I wonder how that will pan out with some of those neighbors now being members of NATO.
Comment by Captain D — Sunday, August 10, 2024 @ 6:19 pm
Народ соединёных штато обращаюсь к вам!!! вас разводят как кроликов!! А вы и ведётесь… Россия вообще не причём! заступаемся за свиои и никаких отак в сторону Грузии и не предпринемалось и не будет предприниматься!!!
Comment by Jek — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 12:14 am
Looks like this thing is escalating. Man, this is coming at a bad time for the US.
With unpopular wars going on, and our military spread thin, and a presidential election in a couple of months - you know, the strategist in me thinks that the timing of this action is not coincidental.
This is as much a test of western commitment to NATO expansion as it is anything else, and Russia knows that the US isn’t going to do a darn thing right now, and without US leadership NATO is pretty much dead weight.
There is a very scary possibility that this could destabilize the Caucasus and Baltic regions entirely as it’s been my understanding that the ethnic tensions here are about as high as they can be without having open violence. It could deteriorate into that quickly and engulf NATO members.
That possibility is troubling.
Comment by Captain D — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 12:46 am
For those who does not know, the small historical inquiry:
Ossetia, Abkhazia, Adjariya, Svanetiya etc. in XIX century were exposed to persecutions from the authorities of Tbilisi. Only presence at first imperial armies on kavkaze, and then and Soviet has helped to keep indigenous population.
Concerning last events small chronology:
From 02.08 till - from the Georgian party occurs artillery bombardments of capital of Ossetia and all its territory
From 04.08 - from Ossetia evacuation of local residents begins
07.08 19:00 - Saakashvili declares, that stops bombardment of territory of Ossetia and is ready to sit down for a negotiating table.
07.08 22:00 - Georgia begins the massed artillery bombardment of capital of Ossetia and its territories with application of the weapon of mass defeat
In the morning 08.08 Georgian armies go over to the offensive and moving ahead from different directions to capital of Ossetia completely wipe about all buildings and structures, destroying thus unarmed local residents. Fire is conducted and on the peace-making contingent located in Ossetia, there are killed.
08.08 09:00 - the authorities of South Ossetia ask Russia about protection
08.08 from 09:00 till - the Russian authorities call the USA, all countries of NATO, IOK to influence Georgia for the termination of offensive operation. Reacts only IOK.
08.08 from 17:00 - because of world community inactivity Russia enters the armies on territory of Ossetia and begins operation on expression of armies of Georgia with territory of Ossetia.
Simultaneously foreign news agencies inform on an attack of Russia to Georgia.
And WHERE YOU WERE EARLIER WHEN GEORGIA HAS SHOT MORE THAN 2024 INHABITANTS OF LOCAL INDIGENOUS POPULATION (living there centuries)?!?!?!
Those shots with ostensibly bombardment of Georgia which you see, actually night bombardment by the Georgian party of capital of Ossetia. REALLY TO YOU SO HAVE WASHED OUT BRAINS, THAT YOU ARE MEANINGLY READY TO GET RID 2024 OSSETIN, VICTIMS FROM HANDS OF THE GEORGIAN ARMIES FROM 07.08. LESS THAN FOR 12 HOURS by GEORGIA IT IS KILLED 2024 PEACE PERSON, AND YOU AT ALL DO NOT NOTICE THEM!!!
THERE IS NO SOVIET UNION MORE!!! FORGET ABOUT IT! NOT WE HAVE UNTIED THIS SLAUGHTER-HOUSE!!!!!
Comment by Andrey — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 2:13 am
Most of publication in western country’s is only part of truth. Nobody writes about genocide in Southern Osetia, about absolutely destroied capital of Osetia, about many killed civilians of Osetia. They wrote that “Russian officials have said at least 2,000 people have been killed in South Ossetia” and forgot to add “by Georgian army”. They are not soldiers, they are children, women and elderly. You may not to believe in it, but it’s true.
Do not allow to deceive yourself! Look for truth not only in CNN or BBC. There is not any war in Georgia. Russian troops only stopped genocide of Osetians.
Comment by Ilya — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 2:14 am
Во Андрюха во всём прав! так что блин… Давай те мира!!! Мир хочет мира, а дураки войны…
Comment by Jek — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 3:34 am
IT’s at least strange: when USA performed some actions like in Belgrad (in Serbia) in 1999 - bombing civilians without any sanctions from UN or punished Saddam with argue that he killed (or ordered to kill) 400 people it is ok and fine with US or Euro media. But when Russia processes its world rights I mean helps to Osetian to avoid genocide the same medias represent it as “non proportional agressive agains Georgia”…Moreover Russia and Georgia historically were (and I belive will be) friendly in respect to each other. So the only one reason (for adequate people) for Georgia to start such conflict is to provocate Russia and the represent it as agressive country. I think the origin of such initiatives is located outside the Georgia. When USA transferred weapons to Georgia (it is confirmed fact by the EU) and Georgian military budger increased in last 3 years in 30!!! times!!! it is not difficult to guess where such origin is located. So I am russian and I don’t wont to see USA everywhere in the world especially near my country! I think if Russia even start to discuss helps to CUBA in military aspect (or, assume to Mexica or Columbia) no one in USA just observe or discussed with world community such situation. So JUST FORGET about the picture on which USA decides all worlds question only by itself! There are many other countries in a world!
Comment by Oleg Russia Siberia — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 12:04 pm
Analogies can be useful. They also can be misleading. I suppose that, in his analogy-filled interview, Zbig skirted over the far more relevant (at least to the Kremlin) Kosovo analogy.
Comment by MSS — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 1:17 pm
Indeed, as I read more on this topic, the more it is in the running for most analogized event of recent history. It Sarajevo prior to WWI, its Czechoslovakia in WWII, its’ Prague 1968, and so forth.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 1:33 pm
By the way, from the longer statement by Carl Bildt that Zbig referred to:
“No state has a right to intervene militarily in the territory of another state simply because there are individuals there with a passport issued by that state.”
That is a pretty important principle, and one I suspect Zbig and the rest of the US political elite and media would be less fond of quoting the former Swedish foreign minister on.
(Source: FT, by way of CT.)
Comment by MSS — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 1:44 pm
Dear my americans friends!
I live in Rostov on Don in south of Russia, in our city live a much nations,more 100 (Greeks,Armenians,Russians and others).President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, its FUCKING DONKEY,which not friendly with one`s own head.Your President Bush exploiting as a LITTLE DOG or TOY.Its our public opinion of all russians.Gergians,in majoirity,its very false mans,BUT NOT ALL!The MAIN LIAR №1 in world - President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili!He is The BiG FUCKING SHIT!The Gergia is coutry of 3-d world with president - Donkey…
Comment by i000798 — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 1:53 pm
And epilogue: WAR - NO!PEACE - YES!:))))
Comment by i000798 — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 1:57 pm
Russia called an emergency session of UN SC on Thursday night at about 11 pm EDT. Russia was calling for the consul to accept a three-sentence resolution calling for Georgia to cease fire and return to negotiations at South Ossetia. This resolution was blocked by U.S. and U.K.
On Friday after reports of Georgia using artillery, MLRS and assault jets to attack a sleeping S.O. city of Tshinvali at night, killing over 1500 Russian-citizen civilians and 12 Russian peacekeepers Russian government had no choice but to go in to keep the face.
In fact a lot of people in Russia are outraged by the fact that it took so long for the Russian government to react and send troops to protect the civilians. By the time Russian tanks got to Tskhinvali the city was already leveled by Georgian heavy weapons. The only remaining civilians were hiding in basements with no electricity, gas or water.
I do agree that Russia has no business in Georgia, but it was Georgian president that wanted to become a national hero and take control of two de-facto independent provinces who started this war.
He even declared an immunity for the members of the S.O. government on Thursday. He was hoping to quickly overthrow the separatist governments (that were by the way elected by the local population) while the whole world is watching the opening of the Olympics. But he miscalculated the reaction of Russia and the willingness of West to send help. Russia is indeed very close to the stereotype of a sleeping bear. It is big, slow and lazy. But it can be very dangerous when it wakes up.
Comment by engineer — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 3:32 pm
In general:
Military action was initiated by Georgia towards South Osetia a couple of days ago. It caused deaths of 2024 civilians, which can be reffered to as cold-blooded murders performed by georgian troops
For a couple of days I was hoping that the georgian goverment will get what it deserves for what it has done. But something else is happening. After russia replied to military action of georgia by the military action of their peacekeeping forces situated in South Osetia, strange reports started coming up in USA and UK media first stating that Russia is trying to envade Georgia and then implying that Russian troops are preforming ethnic clensing on Georgian soil just 20 miles away from Georgian capital Tbilisie. But they are not showing any photos or videos proving that fact although the BBC reporter who makes live reports on BBC world every hour is in the center of the city where this brutal ethnic clesning by Russian troops is supposed to be taking place.
Georgian president now claims that Georgia is just a victim and that Russia played a role of an agressor in the whole conflict. So he is begging UN countries to interfere and show Russia its place.
Well the only thing I can say is that it is obviously bull shit, and that Russia cannnot be an agressor if the military actions were started by the “victim”, and if the “victim” slaughtered 2024 civilians. While the UK and Usa media fails to show any prove of Russian agression, Russian media has been broadcasting the prove of that of Georgia since the 8th of August.
And now the interesing details:
Recent events has finally proven several things to me. First is that UN is no longer an adequate or useful for the world. Not being able to express their opinion for so long and failing to do whatsoever, the security counsil is full of old, useless men, who care more about their lunch than the lives of poor people of South Osetia or Georgia. After Darfour, I hoped they learned valuable lesson, but unfortunatelly, they broke my hopes. Second truth I saw was that Saakashvilli is not a president, he is a lying, decieving, monstrous pet-dog of U.S Government, who wouldn’t stop before anything (even the murder of his own people), just to prove his loyalty to Mrs.Rice (and his utter stupidity to the adequate world). The amount of lies he told and promises he broke already disqualifies him as person and as a Man, he is definetly not a presidnet, but rather a self-centered dictator with a severe case of schitsophrenia. Poor citizens of Georgia are now thrown into the havoc, not knowing what is happening and being forced to mobilise and evacuate. The other thing I understood was that BBC, CNN and other mass media giants are not just bias, they are fully controlled by their governments and the information they give us is nothing but propaganda, aiming to decieve and create the false opinion. Shame on them and their journalists, who failed to provide world the true facts. My understanding of the actual events come from my phonecalls to friends in the region and some independent sources such as nregion.com and similar websites.
The attack of the Georgian special forces was prepared by Saakashvili and U.S Government for a long time. The day - the beginning of Olympics was not coincidential. Mr.Putin is in Beijing and Mr.Medvedev is on vacation, this was supposed to gain georgian army more time as the reaction will be delayed. Same night, just prior to the beginning of attack, many georgian families were called and told by their recrutement authorities, that the mobilisation is due, and the reason they gave was - The 8 days of compulsary training. All men from 18 to 40 had to be present in the recruitement centers before 10 a.m the morning the war began. This information I gathered from mothers of some boys, who had to abandon their summer practises in Universities.
Russian army did not launch any military responce to the attack until several hours after Georgian forces were already rampaging in South Osetia, executing peaceful people in the villages and killing peacekeepers. Russian government to the very last moment tried to reason with the moron Saakashvili, but their efforts were hopeless from the very beginning. The monster has made his move, starting ethnic cleansing ansd genocide (commanding to use Thor systems to destroy the civilian areas of Tschinvali and other villages definetly qualifies fo he use of such terms)
Just the day before he swore that the negotiations will continue, but to such a person there is nothing sacred. Even the evacuation corridor the Georgian government promised for people of Tschinvali between 15:00 and 18:00 the same day, has turned out as a trap aimed to finish off any survivors.
The gap between the attack and military responce from the Russian peace keepers force proves that all of Saakashvili’s announcements are pure lies. The plan was quite well-thought of, but the monster made several mistakes in carrying it out. The blame, which is supposed to be put on Russia won’t stick as after the realisation of the FACTS I just exposed, even the U.S Government will have to admit that Russia is actually the only force, which helped and protected the people of South Osetia from complete elimination on their homeland. The question is how long will it take them and how many lives of innocent people of Georgia and South Osetia will be ruined, before the monster Saakashvili is stopped. And even after that what will be lost in this WAR is not only lives, but the fragile trust between Georgians and Osetians, which took Russia more than 15 years to built. Lets all pray the War ends soon and for you to never have to experience anything like this
Comment by Nick — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 4:46 pm
THE BEGIN of the war was the MURDER OF >1500(!) CIVIL PEOPLE BY GEORGIAN ARMY! They killed defenceless women and children! That was the the first step! CNN, BBC, Euronews will never say about this… Just hypocricy and lie…
Comment by Alex — Monday, August 11, 2024 @ 5:14 pm