Via the BBC: Bolivians vote on Morales’ fate

The people of Bolivia have started voting on whether they want President Evo Morales and eight regional governors to remain in office.

The recall referendum was organised to consolidate the leaders in office amid growing divisions over the president’s attempts to reform the constitution.

Apparently, there is some disagreement over what the threshold is that must be passed to remove the president. One interpretation is simply 50%, while another is a number derived from the previous election. See La Prensa: Dos fórmulas de interpretación complican la consulta popular.

The bottom line is that if the vote is close, there will be a court challenge over what standard should be used.

Miguel Centellas at Pronto* notes the counting issues as well as the wording of the ballot measures:

¿Usted está de acuerdo con la continuidad del proceso de cambio liderizado por el presidente Evo Morales Ayma y el vicepresidente Álvaro García Linera?

[Are you in agreement with the continuation of the process of change in leadership provided by President Evo Morales Ayma and Vicepresident Álvaro García Linera?

¿Usted está de acuerdo con la continuidad de las políticas, las acciones y la gestión del prefecto del departamento?

[Are you in agrement with the continuation of the policies, actions and management of the prefect of the department (governor)?]

I agree with Miguel, it is odd that the two meaures have different wording. It also strikes me as odd that the wording doesn’t actually ask directly whether the voter wants the current occupants of the offices in question to be removed. While one assumes that everyone knows that this is the purpose of the vote, it is odd that the language isn’t more direct.

I have not, to this point, been able to find a copy of the ballot nor was I able to find an official version of the wording.

Miguel also points to this post at MABB, which discusses the schedule for counting the votes as well as the controversy over what the exact threshold for recall should be.

In terms of what to specifically look for, I think that the LAT gets it basically right:

A landslide of 60% or more backing Morales would give him the impetus to proceed with constitutional revisions, including land reform that would redistribute large holdings in the eastern lowlands. Morales says they should be parceled out among peasants, angering eastern soybean farmers and other major landowners.

The new constitution also would allow Morales to seek reelection for another five-year term.