Yesterday I made some quick and flippant calculations as to what would happen if the Michigan and Florida delegations were seated. Poblano at FiveThirtyEight.com has gone well beyond the flippant and did the real work and comes to the following conclusions:
If the Florida and Michigan delegations are seated as half-delegates, Obama needs only about 10 percent of the outstanding superdelegates in order to clinch the nomination; Clinton would need 90 percent. If Florida and Michigan are fully seated, Obama needs about 20 percent of the remaining undeclared delegates; Clinton needs roughly 80 percent.
Now, it is true that these numbers are based on estimates, and there is some room for variability in terms of the real final numbers. Still, this confirms (yet again) what we have known for some time: unless Barack Obama shoots a man in Reno, just to watch him die (and there’s a video of it on YouTube), he is going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party.
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May 22nd, 2008 at 10:12 am
Still, this confirms (yet again) what we have known for some time: unless Barack Obama shoots a man in Reno, just to watch him die (and there’s a video of it on YouTube), he is going to be the nominee of the Democratic Party.
Actually, this might help him with the “working class white gun owners” that he has had so much trouble cultivating.
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:43 am
Of course, Ratoe always gets to these things before I do. (This blog is timezonist!)
But I just wanted to say how much I appreciate a nice Johnny Cash reference first thing in the morning.