Via Zogby International: Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Deadlocked in Pennsylvania!
The survey, which was conducted April 15-16, 2024 and came out of the field midway through Wednesday’s contentious debate between the two candidates in Philadelphia, shows Clinton at 45% and Obama at 44%, with 12% either wanting someone else or left undecided.
The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 601 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the Pirate Poll (i.e., ARG) has a new set of numbers that puts Clinton up 57%-37% (of course, their previous poll had them tied at 45%-45%, so something ain’t right somewhere).
Going to aggregations of polls, Pollster.com continues to show a closing gap.
In looking at the list of polls at Pollster.com taken since the start of April (N=10), four given Clinton a double-digit lead, while the rest put the race in the single digits.
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I think a better headline might be “Zogby has no idea what he’s talking about most of the time”.
Just sayin’.
Comment by B. Minich — Thursday, April 17, 2024 @ 1:28 pm
Zogby is hardly the best pollster, but that is why the link that Steven provided to Pollster.com is the one to go to. It aggregates, and they also report the individual polls. There is a clear consensus of different polling houses that Clinton has slipped badly recently, while Obama has continued (if not accelerated) an increase that has been going on for months there.
The caution is that this trend is almost precisely what we saw in the week running up to Texas, but Clinton managed to reverse that. On the other hand, in Ohio, a state whose demographics are more like PA’s than Texas, there was never this dramatic a late reversal of the trend. What the experience of those two states might portend here I don’t pretend to know. But it is interesting, and something sure looks to be “up” in PA. And it is not Clinton’s numbers.
Comment by MSS — Thursday, April 17, 2024 @ 3:29 pm