Left In Alabama writes:
Man, Alabama Republicans really hate John McCain, but they aren’t so good at math. Or maybe they’re in a state of denial, like they’ve done with global climate change.
Really, that has been the story of a lot of citizens, especially Republicans this year. Consider, the Ron Paul followers and their lack of understanding over what a 5% ceiling means.
In regards to McCain v. Huckabee, Left in Alabama correctly notes:
ohn McCain currently has 724 delegates and Huckabee has 196, according to Real Clear Politics. 1191 delegates are required to win the nomination, so McCain needs another 467 delegates or Huckabee needs another 995. How many are still up for grabs in the remaining primaries and caucuses? 1031, according to the numbers from Real Clear Politics.
So McCain needs to win 467/1031 (45%) to win and Huckabee needs to win 995/1031 (96%) to win.
As such, is there really any argument against the notion that McCain is the presumptive nominee of the party?
Still, it would seem that some are still in the land of delusions:
The suspension of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign Thursday may give Arizona Sen. John McCain a big lead in the delegate count, but it would be a mistake to count out former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, several Alabama Republican leaders said.Sphere: Related Content
How does who not understand a 5% ceiling? What are you referring to?
Here is some math: If McCain does not turn libertarian and, say, repeal at least 3 big laws that took away free speech rights (like the Violence Against Women Act), then 25% of Montana Republicans will make sure he does NOT win their state in the general. Ditto for Wyoming, Alaska, North Dakota, Minnesota where RP gets more than 15% Republican support (the liberals and a lot of conservatives were all off voting for Obama last week, the latter to stop Hillary at all costs bless their hearts).
Here is more math: With 16% Ron Paul Republicans in Minnesota, what will Norm Coleman have to do if they make demands on him regarding his reelection prospects?
What number of unconstitutional laws would Coleman have to open up repeal bills for in order to secure that the 16% of bonafide Republican voters doesn’t vote for his opponent (in order to make the damage 32%)?
I love math.
Comment by Jack Sanderson — Friday, February 8, 2024 @ 4:57 pm
If your argument is that McCain may not win in November, you are correct, although not for the reasons you cite, per se.
The odds that Wyoming, for example, will go Democratic, are infinitesimal.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Friday, February 8, 2024 @ 5:17 pm
Wyoming would not go Democratic, but it would go to the Ron Paul successor if they choose one well before the Libertarian Memorial Day Weekend Convention (Ron Paul cannot run 3rd Party because he intends to keep his Congressional seat).
They really don’t like McCain out there (and in the Dakotas and Alaska) and these are must win states. McCain won big in states where he has no chance.
I would agree the big race to watch is between Obama and Clinton.
Comment by Jack Sanderson — Friday, February 8, 2024 @ 6:29 pm
In all honesty, I think it would be fascinating if Paul or a Libertarian won Wyoming. However, I think you are engaging in wishful thinking. Wyoming will go Republican in November, even with John McCain on the ticket and if that ends up not being the case, you are welcome to come back and tell me so. Heck, I will give you login privileges and you can guest post about how wrong I was.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Friday, February 8, 2024 @ 7:55 pm