2 Comments

1. One would suspect that Romney’s MI win won’t result in much of a bounce in SC, so McCain is likely already looking past MI.

   My guess is all of the prognostication about chaos in the Repubican race is, as usual, a step behind. I’m guessing that Mitt will now run the table. He’s consistently beaten McCain with Republicans and nobody else has shown they can place above 3rd in a primary.

   My first prediction of the year: Mitt wins SC narrowly over Huckabee eliminating Johnny Mac from serious contention. Another win in FL on the 29th eliminates Rudy and the race ends on Super Tuesday.

   With the conventional wisdom suddenly veering from the earlier “it may be over by Feb 5th” to the current “it may go on to the convention” it’s obvious that a quick end is in sight.

   A couple of other random thoughts:

   SC will eliminate at least 1 candidate. Thompson is the obvious favorite to be toast, with McCain also possible.

   Huckabee had the perfect storm in Iowa — a state where he could spend forever and use his small but dedicated evangelical supporters to overwhelm the caucus. That won’t be repeated. However he’s the guy that will be trying to convince Wolf Blitzer in May that there’s still a mathematical chance for him to win. Undoubtedly Wolf will believe him.

   Rudy bet it all on Florida. Even if he wins, he won’t wear well in elsewhere.

   I think it’s over now.

   Comment by Buckland — Tuesday, January 15, 2024 @ 10:14 pm

2. I agree with Stephen that Romney won’t get much of a bounce in SC… but I think that what Michigan really did was prevent McCain from gaining a whole lot more traction which I think he would have if he’d been the favorite son of Michigan. This is great for Huckabee.

   Comment by R. Alex — Wednesday, January 16, 2024 @ 9:41 am

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