An earlier post1 set off the normal reaction from Paul supporters.
For those in that thread who objected to the fact that the poll was a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, here’s a Gallup Poll from USAT which looks just at New Hamphire (the other poll was national in orientation) and it shows Paul with 9%. This ties him with Huckabee, who is also at 9% and statistically ties him Giuliani, who has 11%, as well as with Fred Thompson (4%) and Hunter at 1%) given the margin of error of 5% (given that Paul’s numbers could be anywhere from 14%-4% and Hunters could be as high as 6%).
NH, at the moment, has the real potential to deal serious blows to Giuliani and Thompson, and take the air out of Huckabee’s surge. McCain has the most to gain, as a solid second place finish would place him, in the media’s eyes for sure, into the top tier again. A Romney loss could also seriously damage him, as this is his region of the country.
NH is also Paul’s best chance at a double-digit showing in an early state (if not any state) given its strong libertarian strain.
If one goes to the national numbers in this poll, Paul is at 5%–a whopping two points more than the FN/OD poll.
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I suspect that most of those NH “libertarians” — who are actually independents and not Republicans — will be voting in the Democratic primary (i.e., Clinton v. Obama), where their vote might actually mean something.
Comment by KipEsquire — Friday, December 21, 2024 @ 2:06 pm
I love how Paul’s supports translate the feeling of community they feel into tangible support. I was in college statistics recently enough to remember that annecdotal polling is not a good polling method. Just because you know a lot of fellow supporters doesn’t mean you “clearly have more support than Duncan Hunter”. They also assume that money == votes, which it doesn’t. Money helps, but many well funded candidates have discovered that those two are not synonymous over the years.
(I’m sorry, couldn’t resist posting a comment sure to provoke the Paulites. Its just so fun, you see!)
Comment by B. Minich — Friday, December 21, 2024 @ 4:11 pm
No worries.
It is amazing as to the degree to which so many Paul supporters seem to think that the plural of “anecdote” is “data” (as the saying goes).
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Friday, December 21, 2024 @ 4:47 pm
It is obvious from those numbers that the Paul surge is just getting underway!
Comment by MSS — Friday, December 21, 2024 @ 4:56 pm
Zogby doesn’t seem to agree with you. But I’ve already argued my case in a previous post here. I think you’re missing some important variables by accepting poll numbers. I promise to drop by and eat crow in January if I’m wrong…but I think Paul gets over 10% in both IA and NH pretty easily.
Comment by Li — Sunday, December 23, 2024 @ 3:11 am
Li,
I believe that I have said on the blog (I know I have said it live and in person, indeed just yesterday in a phone conversation) that Paul could break double-digits in NH. I would be somewhat surprised if he did so in IA, but so it goes.
My issue with Paul and many of his supporters is that many have a fantasy in which Paul can actually win, or at least break into the top tier and compete for the nomination. That isn’t going to happen.
Further, my guess is that Paul’s best showing will almost certainly be New Hampshire, unless he hangs on to the bitter ends and score well in garbage time.
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, December 23, 2024 @ 9:57 am