In a reversal from early indications, the constitutional reform package in Venezuela has been narrowly defeated (via the BBC): Chavez defeated over reform vote
Voters rejected the raft of reforms by a margin of 51% to 49%, the chief of the National Electoral Council said.
How Chávez proceeds from here will be interesting to watch. He is clearly not done with the issues at hand:
“For now, we couldn’t do it,” he said, repeating words he spoke after his failed coup attempt in February 1992.
Still, I will give him credit for not having a convenient “computer crash” (as Mexico did in 1988) or some other ploy to fix the outcome.
In terms of the vote itself, regular readers will know that the voters of Venezuela had two choices on their ballots which corresponded to two blocks of amendments. According to the latest from the National Electoral Council of Venezuela, the A Block failed to pass by a vote of 50.7% to 49.29% and the B Block failed by a vote of 51.05% to 48.94%. Turnout was 55.89%:
En el Bloque A, la opción del NO obtuvo 4.504.354, con 50.70% de la votación. La opción del Si, obtuvo 4.379.392, con 49.29%.El total de votos válidos 8 millones 883 mil 746.
Total de votos nulos 118 mil 693.
Total de votos escrutados 9 millones 2 mil 439.
Abstención del 44.11%En el Bloque B, la opción del NO obtuvo 4.522.332, con 51.05%. La opción del Si obtuvo 4.335.136 con 48.94%.
The NYT notes (Venezuela Hands Narrow Defeat to Chávez Plan):
It was the first major electoral defeat in the nine years of his presidency.
[...]
Sphere: Related ContentThe outcome is a stunning development in a country where Mr. Chávez and his supporters control nearly all of the levers of power. Almost immediately after the results were broadcast on state television, Mr. Chávez conceded defeat, describing the results as a “photo finish.”
December 3rd, 2007 at 7:47 am
[...] Not so fast… Sphere: Related Content Filed under: Latin America, Elections || [...]
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:21 am
I really was surprised when I saw the NYT headline this morning. And for him to concede defeat so easily was an even bigger surprise.
December 3rd, 2007 at 11:24 pm
I was watching this with some interest. I went to a forum recently where a poli-sci professor from the nearby U of Mich was talking about Iraq, and specifically favorable economic preconditions for democracy. He referenced heavy economic dependancy on a single source of income, such as oil, as a poor condition for maintaining democracy. I immediately thought of Venezuela’s socialist, authoritarian shift, and how it was mobilized by reliance on oil. Interesting parallels anyway.
December 5th, 2007 at 8:29 am
It can be argued, and the empirical evidence seems to bear out the notion, that vast oil reserves are an impediment to development.