Via the LAT: A surprise turn in Iowa’s Republican race
With 34 days remaining, the Republican presidential race in Iowa has broken wide open, as Mike Huckabee surges into contention with the longtime front-runner, Mitt Romney.
Polls show the two former governors running nearly even in Iowa, which will cast the first votes of the 2024 campaign, despite Huckabee’s meager resources and the large amounts of time and TV advertising that Romney has lavished on the state. Earlier this month, surveys had Huckabee trailing Romney by double digits.
The question that comes to mind for me is whether a Huckabee win is a bigger deal for Huckabee or Romney? I honestly have a hard time seeing either as the nominee, but also think that if Romney is to have a shot, he almost certainly has to win Iowa and NH. I am not sure that a Huckabee win in Iowa catapults him into a serious position to fight for the nomination.
Thoughts on that?
Also: Huckabee’s new status will bring more attention, both positive and negative (and it will be interesting to see how that affects his status).
November 30th, 2024 at 1:39 pm
It’s been obvious for months that Huckabee will win the GOP nomination. Why do people continue to imagine otherwise?
November 30th, 2024 at 2:16 pm
According to this LAT article, it’s all because of that coveted Chuck Norris endorsement. Now what it will ultimately amount to is anybody’s guess.
November 30th, 2024 at 2:33 pm
I’m guessing from your comments here and previously, you’re expecting Giuliani to win the nomination.
Giuliani’s biggest problem is that Hillary, though still the presumptive nominee, seems less-than-inevitable. His campaign seems based on the inevitability of Hillary — the argument being something like, “Hey, I know you primary voters aren’t crazy about me, but I’m the only one who can defeat Hillary. You’d prefer me to Hillary, right?”
With Hillary showing signs of weakness, Giuliani’s position becomes less compelling, because it suggests that even if she is the nominee, she’s vulnerable to any Republican candidate, not just Giuliani.
That opens up room for some who isn’t Giuliani or Romney. I think there has been a significant part of the Republican electorate that has never been happy with either, but haven’t figured out who they want to dance with at the ball. The more idealistic were split between Brownback and Huckabee (who conventional wisdom suggested couln’t win), and the more realistic were hoping to collect all the “none of the above, but not Hillary” votes under the celebrity of Fred Thompson.
Now entering December, Brownback has dropped, and Thompson is stalled in the mud. Those unhappy with Romney and Giuliani may very well decide that Huckabee is their man. All Huckabee has to do to attract these voters is to prove that he’s a contender. I would argue that even a strong second is a win for Huckabee.
Huckabee’s biggest problem is that no matter how he does in Iowa, he hasn’t had the money to put together big organizations in other states. Imagining he wins the Iowa caucus at the end of January, that gives him almost no time to organize for all the contests in February, including New Hampshire, South Carolina, Arizona, Michigan … in essence, he’s going to have to compete after Iowa without the kind of money and organizations Romney and Giuliana have.
So, the upshot of all this is that I think Huckabee is helped as much by Thompson’s lackadaisical campaign and the recent chinks in Hillary’s armor. I think he might leave Iowa a serious contender, but in the best of circumstances he’ll still have an uphill fight.
November 30th, 2024 at 4:11 pm
Ok, so neither the Huckster nor Romney can be the nominee? It certainly won’t be Giuliani–he will be lucky to still be in the race come February.
It is hard to predict what will happen since the party doesn’t really have any legitimate candidates.
It is sort of like Dole in ’96. The only reason he won the nomination was because he had been around the longest. But his weakness as a candidate was never in question.
96 is an interesting comparison to ’08 since you had moderate-from-a-liberal-state Pete Wilson as the Giuliani, another Massachusetts governor (Weld) as the Romney, and a couple of whackjobs (Keyes and Buchanan) as the Ron Paul & Brownback.
The only difference from ’96 was Dole who was the elder statesman–and he sailed to the nomination.
The missing factor this time around is the elder statesman–it is just a bunch of doomed extremists, frauds, and neer-do-wells.
No matter who wins the nomination, they will lose huge to whatever clown the Democrat party puts up.
November 30th, 2024 at 4:38 pm
More importantly, is the surge working?
Oh wait, wrong surge…
I’ve paid little attention to Huckabee since he went on a crusade to force us all to lose weight through the power of the government, since if he was able to lose 100 lbs, the rest of us have no excuse and must be forced to comply. That he believe that is within the authority of the government at any level makes him as evil as Romney.
November 30th, 2024 at 5:46 pm
The key thing is that they’re governors. Very few nominees for president come from the senate, virtually all are governors or vice presidents.
Governors learn to think fast while battling the inevitable state power games with various local pols. Senators learn to be dignified and pompous when confronted with uncertainty.
The 2 poll leaders are the exceptions that prove the point. Guliani was mayor of a city bigger than most states, and HRC was in the governor’s mansion and the white house for 2 decades combined. When was the last presidential election when neither a former Veep or gov was involved?
I think that Huckabee’s surge shows the weakness of candidates, particularly Thompson and McCain. Thompson hasn’t lived up to prior billing and McCain just looks to frail to attract a real following. Neither Guliani nor Romney has been able to collect these voters.
Here’s my guess — Soon after Iowa and NH McCain and Thompson call it quits. Romney and Guliani battle for a few rounds till one is crowned champ. Huck will be the guy that will be campaining in June explaining to empty VFW halls why he still has a mathematical chance.
November 30th, 2024 at 6:58 pm
When was the last presidential election when neither a former Veep or gov was involved?
2004
November 30th, 2024 at 7:00 pm
Whoops–Im an idiot. I forgot Bush was once governor.
I guess the fact that the office of governor in Texas is so weak that I forgot to count it.
November 30th, 2024 at 8:22 pm
I have a hard time seeing anyone in this field as the nominee, but presumably one of them will be.
As much as the pundit class might long for a brokered convention with a Newt (or someone) pulled out at the last moment, that’s fantasy. (Isn’t it?)
All I can say is it is a lot more fun to watch when you have no idea what is going to happen!
December 1st, 2024 at 10:59 am
That’s pretty much my view as well. Rather then seeing some as more likely than others, some look less likely than others (if that makes any sense).
Hence (to Scott above), it isn’t that I like Rudy is inevitable (I actually don’t, but have been amazed at his resiliency), it is that he is less less likely than Huckabee.
Pure fantasy, I would think.
True!