Via the LAT:Polls don’t reflect Obama’s star power
So why isn’t Obama doing better in the polls?
No candidate in recent memory has swept onto the national political scene with greater fanfare. Obama has been on magazine covers and talk shows. Oprah Winfrey endorsed him, and Obama Girl’s unrequited urges turned him into a YouTube sensation. He has raised nearly as much money as Clinton, and in Iowa, at least, has advertised twice as much (4,244 TV spots versus 2,192, according to the Nielsen Co.)
Yet he has been unable to translate the relentless, often fawning attention into anything approaching a surge, especially in the crucial state of Iowa. Here, where the nation’s first contest is scheduled to take place the first week of January, polls show him in a tight three-way race with Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, though Clinton has recently pulled ahead.
In New Hampshire, site of the nation’s second contest, his support has dipped and he now trails Clinton by about 20 points. But in national polls (those admittedly imperfect yardsticks), Clinton is creaming him.
Could the man have misplaced his mojo?
How soon we forget Howard Dean, yes? Granted, he didn’t have the “rock star” appeal that Obama seems to have, but he did raise a lot of money in small increments over the internet and he did generate a lot of excitement in his campaign, especially amongst young people on college campuses. Yet, as we know, Dean lost in fairly spectacular fashion. As such, this isn’t as odd as the piece makes it out to be.
Indeed, the fact of the matter is that a specific person may be able to generate large crowds and still not be widely popular over a large population–it happens all the time in entertainment. A specific musician or a given stage production may be able to generate a large crowd and a solid box office but still not be a broad phenomenon (or even well known) in the general population.
Generically this analysis comes across as reflective of near innumeracy of the reporter vis-a-vis polling (sadly, a normal occurrence in campaign season), insofar as it does not take into account the fact that crowds, and donors for that matter, represents a tiny fraction of the overall numbers of persons that polls are capturing.
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October 29th, 2007 at 8:11 am
I think Howard Dean can only be used as a slight comparison. Although they both raised a lot of money, Howard dean had a completely inept organization (especially in Iowa). On the ground he didn’t have anybody in charge, and a lot of people running around crazy. Obama has the infrastructure, but can’t get anybody to support him. Why, I don’t know?
October 29th, 2007 at 8:36 am
There are a number of differences, to be sure (although infrastructure itself does not lead to support, it simply helps focus it).
However, as a journalistic phenomenon, Dean was treated, for a while, like the Second Coming. As such, we have a recent example of a candidate who seemed to have support in the eyes of the press, but ultimately didn’t.
October 29th, 2007 at 9:43 am
Obama Raising Money, Not Poll Numbers
Barack Obama is a “rock star” and is raising nearly as much money as Hillary Clinton and is spending more money on advertising in Iowa, yet he’s losing ground in the polls. LAT staffer Robin Abcarian wonders how that could be.
Every…
October 29th, 2007 at 9:55 am
How soon we forget Howard Dean, yes?
There were major differences between Dean & Obama. Dean, unlike Obama, had been a governor for more than a decade and had extensive national exposure as chair of the National Governors Association. Dean was an established political figure with demonstrated executive experience.
It is legitimate, as the article says that “no candidate in recent memory has swept onto the national political scene with greater fanfare.”
Dean already had a long-established record of executive leadership. Plus, Obama has Oprah–Dean’s biggest celebrity endorser was Rob Reiner!
October 29th, 2007 at 11:21 am
I don’t meant to argue that the parallel is perfect.
However, in terms of media reaction, and even crowd/fundraising reaction, there are clear similarities.
In terms of pre-campaign identification, I would argue that Obama’s 2004 DNC speech/being a Senator from Illinois gave him more exposure than Dean ever got as governor of Vermont.