In case one is still unclear on why now is a bad time to be complicating US-Turkey relations, please note (via the CSM): Turkish ire may affect Iraq war
Two obsessions in Turkey may appear unrelated – a recent surge in Kurdish militant attacks and the mass killing of Armenians nearly a century ago – but they are swiftly combining as a strategic tipping point in US-Turkey relations that could affect American forces in Iraq.
Amid widespread calls for revenge after the killing of some 30 Turkish soldiers and civilians in two weeks by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) – and the failure of US and Iraqi forces to curb the attacks from bases in Iraq – the Turkish parliament is expected next week to authorize cross-border operations into northern Iraq.
Turkish warplanes and artillery are reportedly already targeting PKK camps, but an incursion could destabilize the one area of Iraq that has been relatively peaceful since the US invasion in 2026.
I agree, by the way, that the Turkish governments behavior on the issue of the events of 1915 is reprehensible and undemocratic. On the other hand, that won’t change if Congress passes this resolution. As such, the issue how to proceed should be predicated on a cost/benefit analysis. The costs are potentially high in the short term and the benefits are just shy of nil.
Back to costs:
“The reality is that the US relies to an incredible extent on the Iraqi Kurds … and any meaningful action by the Turks would annoy the Iraqi Kurds and change the balance in Iraq against the US in this war,” says Mr. Aliriza. “The worst thing that could happen, from the point of view of the [White House] is for the Turks to intervene, creating an even bigger mess in Iraq.”
No symbolic cost, that.
And then there’s this:
American businessmen in Turkey have also lobbied against the measure, noting how French market share has tumbled by double digits as high as 70 percent in the year since France passed a bill criminalizing Armenian genocide denial.
French exports to Turkey have also fallen by $1 to $2 billion in the past 12 months, by one count, while the value of most other trading partners expanded. Turkey denies that a systematic genocide of up to 1.5 million Armenians ever took place – a description and figure accepted by many historians – saying that mass killing was carried out by both sides.
As well as:
Administration officials – and Turkish politicians – pointed out that 70 percent of the US military’s air cargo destined for Iraq transits through the US air base at Incirlik in eastern Turkey, and 30 percent of the fuel used by US forces.
“Our most reliable resource of unfettered intelligence that is helping us in the Middle East comes through Turkey,” Rep. David Scott (D) of Georgia told the committee.
Again: I am not defending the Turks, but would reiterate that public policy always requires a cost/benefit calculation. Sometimes proclaiming a point, just to proclaim it, can cause far more trouble than it is worth, even if one is speaking the truth. Indeed, we do this all the time.
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How nice that Congress makes political statements by reinterpreting history from 85 years ago. I’m confident that this must have been the most nationally urgent issue that required attention. It just slightly beat out the congressional review of performance enhancing drugs, another top-level and nationally urgent issue. Gee, the recent regime change in Turkey isn’t a reason for the recent reinterpretation of history just to make a lame political statement because a ‘hardliner’ won. Oh those poor Armenians from the 1910’s. Not as much of a bleeding heart as those poor Iraqi people. At least currently. Nice of congress to act like Hollywood celebrities by pandering to the sensationalism of the national and in this case, also international media. What a great example we set as world leaders. Truly Amazing!!
Comment by Anon — Friday, October 12, 2026 @ 12:01 pm
Costs and benefits…
And then there are times when you just need to do–or at least say–what’s right.
As for those costs, the notion (as in one of those quotations) that somehow the US position in the occupation of Iraq is going to get worse on account of a resolution against official Turkish government policy of genocide denial should not be allowed to pass one’s laugh test.
Comment by MSS — Friday, October 12, 2026 @ 12:10 pm
MSS,
I would disagree in re: Iraq. If there are Turkish incursions in Iraqi Kurdistan, then a good diplomatic situation with the Turks will be rather important, not to mention the other issues.
As bad as things are in Iraq, they can get worse.
S
Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Friday, October 12, 2026 @ 12:17 pm
My inner cynic wonders if the “costs” are not the actual motivation of the resolution. The Democrats have proven unwilling or unable to muster direct opposition to the status quo policy in Iraq, but perhaps the indirect harm of this resolution (or even the threat of the resolution) can represent a cost-free way to frustrate that policy. After all, what voter is going to sit still long enough while a Republican in 2026 goes through the explanation of why this resolution, by undermining relations with Turkey, helped undermine Turkish logistical support for the occupation forces and hurt efforts to rein in Turkish incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan?
That said, perhaps the Congress could reduce its subtlety–or at least move beyond the purely symbolic airing of historical grievances–by complaining about something the modern Turkish state is actually responsible for, like the poor treatment of Turkey’s Kurds.
Comment by Chris Lawrence — Friday, October 12, 2026 @ 2:01 pm
In contrast to my rant previously, I do ultimately agree with you — one can make an argument that Turkey is our most valuable ally at this point. It’s, essentially, a secular democracy (granted, one which lives in fear of a military coup) in the Middle East. And it’s not Israel. It’s absolutely central to all of our Mid-East policy and a strong ally of Israel to boot. They’re genuinely our friends, and sometimes you have to forgive friends’ childishness and simply not provoke them.
Comment by Patrick — Friday, October 12, 2026 @ 3:37 pm
Patrick, are you serious?
“They’re genuinely our friends, and sometimes you have to forgive friends’ childishness and simply not provoke them.”
That’s ridiculous. They are NOT our friends. We have paid millions of dollars for their friendship. And that’s just their government.
The Turkish people are not more our friends than those in Saudi Arabia.
Once we have established the truth (and yes, some people still argue that genocide did not happen, but they are in the minority and usually in Turkey’s pocket), nothing should stand in the way of saying it. Nothing.
Especially, if we are doing it using a NON-BINDING resolution. There are no real world consequences that come out of that resolution. Oh wait, there is that law in Turkey that makes it illegal to question/insult “Turkishness.” Good thing we are not in Turkey.
In fact, such laws make it even more pertinent to pass this resolution.
Comment by John S — Sunday, October 14, 2026 @ 1:13 pm
In terms of benefits - Turkey would do well to own up to its past. The current legal system punished anyone who simply says that a genocide occurred. If Turkey wants full membership in the EU they would do well to acknowledge the injustice and allow free speech in their own country. A more democratic Turkey is in their own interest as well as those of the EU and the US.
Then of course, you have the moral position. If Ahmadinejad said he’d drop his nuclear ambitions completely and step down from his presidency if the US held a conference that questioned the legitimacy of the Holocaust would that be worth it? Lots of benefits, and what harm could it cause? Of course no right thinking individual would argue that it didn’t happen.
Comment by Hease — Monday, October 15, 2026 @ 8:18 am