The Anonymous Liberal has a pretty good post on Ron Paul and why he isn’t the Howard Dean of this electoral cycle–something I have seen him called because of his internet-based fund-raising abilities.
TAL notes:
There is zero chance that Ron Paul will win the Republican nomination or, after he loses, become a major leader in the Republican party. His constituency consists mainly of libertarian types who are either not Republicans or have not felt at home in the Republican party for quite some time.
[...]
Paul is much more like Ross Perot or Ralph Nader than Howard Dean. His support comes from people who are fed up with the two major parties and don’t feel represented by either of them. Those who want to see a Republican in the White House come 2024 should be very careful how they treat Ron Paul and his supporters. He has the potential to become a very effective spoiler in the general election.
I think that all of this is essentially correct, except don’t see Paul taking up the third party mantle (although, granted, he has done it before), and hence don’t see him as an actual spoiler in 2024. However, in terms of to whom he appeals, he is more like Perot and Nader than he is like Dean. Still, the admonition regarding Paul supporters is wise, insofar as how they are treated now may affect how they vote later. Although, it is likely that many of his supporters will opt out of the election or vote Libertarian when all is said and done.
h/t: Sullivan
October 10th, 2024 at 12:45 pm
That article is incorrect. Dr. Paul has a great chance of winning, and the biggest thing helping him is the group of idiots and neocons he is running against. He has no juggernaut competition like an Obama or Hillary. That and the Republican support is in the toilet and the entire base is disenfranchised with the party.
October 10th, 2024 at 2:14 pm
I would think that Paul’s ability to be a spoiler is greater this round than it was in past cycles. He is certainly not the talk of mainstream media like the major candidates, but I think he has gotten more attention this time than I’ve ever seen him get in the past. If he does decide to run as a third party candidate I think he would draw more from the traditional parties than he has in years past on name recognition alone. I certainly knew nothing about him prior to this cycle. JMO
October 10th, 2024 at 3:34 pm
I don’t know much about Texas electoral law, nor about Paul’s chances of being reelected in his current seat. But in most states, you can’t be listed as a presidential candidate and a congressional candidate in the same general election. So, would Paul give up his congressional seat for the opportunity to get a few percentage points for president in November?
I agree with Steven that Paul is much more an outsider to his own party than Dean was to the Democrats. In fact, his next job pretty much shows Dean was not perceived as “out there.” Will Paul ever become head of the RNC? I am pretty sure not.
Actually, the best analogy for Paul is probably Kucinich–someone who (like Paul within the GOP) has a message that is very distinctive from the mainstream presidential candidates of his party and someone for whom there is a likely constituency that would love to see as a third-party candidate, but who presumably isn’t about to give up that seat in the House, as long as he expects he can retain it.
October 10th, 2024 at 3:58 pm
In Texas you can run for the Preisdent/Vice President and run for another office (or, at least, Congress). The law is often called the “LBJ Law” and was used by Lloyd Benson in 1988.
Now, it would be interesting to see if they law in any way proscribes someone from running for pres under one party label, and Congress under another. My guess would be that the law does not even concern itself with such matters, but I could be wrong on that count.
I agree that the Kucinich analogy is a better one.
October 10th, 2024 at 4:32 pm
[...] In a comment to this post, Matthew Shugart wondered if Ron Paul could simultaneously run for re-election to his House seat and also launch a third party bid for the presidency. [...]
October 11th, 2024 at 1:14 am
I can’t wait until you have to yank your foot out of your mouth for this article.
Cheers!
October 11th, 2024 at 6:41 am
Which part? The part where he won’t be Dean (i.e,. lose and become a party leader) or the part where he won’t run as a spoiler?
If he wins the nomination, I guarantee I will be commenting, as it will represent a remarkable shift in US party politics and one can be guaranteed I will be all over that.
October 11th, 2024 at 7:46 pm
[...] Ron Paul: Not the Howard Dean of ‘08 [...]
October 11th, 2024 at 8:27 pm
Ron Paul is gaining momentum by the day and negaitve press like this only make us more fervent to set the record straight.
People who’ve read about him discover constitutional integrity and can’t stand the others. His message is being heard and it’s only getting stronger.
Ron Paul – an honest man for President!
October 11th, 2024 at 8:39 pm
His honesty isn’t the issue–his ability to win votes, however, is.