You know, with this kind of analysis from the Secretary of Homeland Security, I must confess that I don’t really feel safer knowing his is on the job (via the Chicago Tribune):

“I believe we are entering a period this summer of increased risk,” Chertoff told the Chicago Tribune’s editorial board in an unusually blunt and frank assessment of America’s terror threat level.

“Summertime seems to be appealing to them,” he said of al-Qaeda. “We do worry that they are rebuilding their activities.”

And he indicated that his remarks were based on “a gut feeling” formed by past seasonal patterns of terrorist attacks, recent al-Qaeda statements, and intelligence he did not disclose. [Emphasis mine]

Should the Secretary being making such vague statements about possible attacks, let alone stating that he is basing his assessment, at least in part, on his “gut”? No, I don’t think so, either.

Further, as James Joyner notes, there really isn’t any particular seasonality to AQ activities.

Of course, after Chertoff’s stellar performance during Katrina, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

If anything, it does allow for this rather amusing recasting of the terrorist threat level system.