Via WaPo: No Drop in Iraq Violence Seen Since Troop Buildup

Three months into the new U.S. military strategy that has sent tens of thousands of additional troops into Iraq, overall levels of violence in the country have not decreased, as attacks have shifted away from Baghdad and Anbar, where American forces are concentrated, only to rise in most other provinces, according to a Pentagon report released yesterday.

[…]

Violence fell in Baghdad and Anbar province, where the bulk of the 28,700 more U.S. troops are located, but escalated elsewhere as insurgents and militias regroup in eastern and northern Iraq. In Anbar, attacks dropped by about a third, compared with the previous three months, as Sunni tribes have organized against entrenched fighters from al-Qaeda in Iraq, the report said.

Overall, however, violence “has increased in most provinces, particularly in the outlying areas of Baghdad province and Diyala and Ninewa provinces,” the report said. In Diyala’s restive capital of Baqubah, U.S. and Iraq forces “have been unable to diminish rising sectarian violence contributing to the volatile security situation,” it said.

Remarkably, I suspect that some will then say that the surge was a success because violence is down in Baghdad and Anbar.

Also, this sounds a lot like US counter-narcotics strategy: concentrate on eradicating crops in one location, but while cultivation may decrease in that specific region, it simply increases elsewhere. And, while narrow success may be possible to claim in a specific place, the honest truth is that the policy really isn’t working.

And while I understand that full evaluation of the surge is premature, the bottom line is that if the violence in Baghdad and Anbar is simply going to shift, then it is hard to say that either military or political success is at hand.

And really, we have to remember that even if violence is down in Baghdad and Anbar, it isn’t as if it has been eliminated. Until life can be considered truly normal in Baghdad, I am a afraid that any diminution of violence in the capital isn’t going to matter all that much. And by “normal” I don’t mean utopian, I mean that people are able to engage in daily living, commerce, governing and the like without the constant threat of death. Or, if one wants a more concrete definition: when the Green Zone isn’t necessary and visiting US Senators no longer need massive military escorts to walk through a marketplace.