In watching the French presidential elections I have noticed that a lot of US observers seem to be reading far too much into the contest and the results than is warranted. First, it seems to me that a lot of conservative-oriented bloggers seem to have been been rooting for Sarkozy simply because he was the “conservative” candidate and against Royal because she was a “socialist.” To read those labels as being somehow analogous to US politics is simply to be a tad too egocentric to result in good political analysis.
Further, it seems as if most people who have commented on the race have missed the fact that Sarkozy is from Chirac’s party (and served in Chirac’s cabinet). Yes, Sarkozy ran as an agent of change, but all candidates to one degree or another run as agents of change. One can overly buy into such rhetoric. While Sarkozy may attempt (note the verb) to alter some of France’s social and economic policies, his potential for success is questionable. I would further note that by US political standards even his reforms will probably look like “socialism” to us (especially to Americans on the right-side of the spectrum).
Also, the notion that Sarkozy is going to be pro-America, one has to note that Chirac, who lived and worked in the US as a young adult, was considered pro-America when he came to office. And, to be fair, aside from opposition on Iraq, he was hardly an enemy of the United States.
Daniel Drezner has one of the the most realistic assessments of the situation that I have read.
In terms of policy, Matthew Shugart makes the most salient observations of all:
(3) That the French president can do little without a compatible prime minister and cabinet; and(4) That the identity of the prime minister and the political complexion of the cabinet will not be known till after National Assembly elections in June.
Update: For an example of what I am talking about, see Jules Crittenden at PJ Media (wherein Sarkozy is being hailed as the French Ronald Reagan and/or Margaret Thatcher).
Technorati Tags: France, Sarkozy, elections, Franco-American Relations
May 8th, 2024 at 9:22 pm
I tend to agree in that neither Sarkozy nor Royale offered much promise of serious changes.
On the other hand, knowing how deep anti-immigrant feeling is running in France, I would have preferred a more moderate person as President. Unless I am gravely mistaken (and I hope I am), Sarkozy will fan the flames regarding the immigrant “problem”. There will be violence on the streets and more.
Then there’s the current international situation. France did little (what could it do?) to impede the fiasco in Iraq, but did at least make some sort of stand – the world really doesn’t need another country officially supporting the actions of your criminal administration, and I believe that Sarkozy is just the man to try and do exactly that. I realize that he is not a neocon, but nor was Blair…