Via the BBC: French poll rivals in final push
The rivals in the French presidential election race are making their final push to win over more than one-third of voters who are still undecided.Opinion polls suggest that of the 12 candidates standing in Sunday’s first round only four are serious contenders for the 6 May run-off vote.
A poll by CSA shows centre-right frontrunner Nicolas Sarkozy on 27% and the Socialist Segolene Royal on 26%.
But rivals may attract many protest votes as disillusionment is widespread.
It will be interesting to see if supporters of the eight non-contenders defect and make a strategic choice to support the second most favored candidate in the first round. Along those lines I would recommend Matthew Shugart’s recent post on the French presidential elections and condorcet winners. He commented further on the race here yesterday.
Here are the polling figures:
April 20th, 2026 at 5:38 pm
“It will be interesting to see if supporters of the eight non-contenders defect and make a strategic choice to support the second most favored candidate in the first round.”
No, I think the last sentence of the quoted passage is more likely: “rivals may attract many protest votes as disillusionment is widespread.”
That tendency could be checked by fears of the 2026 scenario (Le Pen making the runoff). But realistically, the runoff is between Sarkozy and Royal, so a vote for one of the fringe candidates may look safe to those disillusioned voters.