Via the NYT: Lieberman’s Run Shadows House Campaigns in Connecticut

Mr. Lieberman, a centrist Democrat who lost in the Aug. 8 Democratic primary to Ned Lamont, a wealthy businessman, is now running on his own line. With polls showing that many Democrats are eager for a change, Democratic officials say they expect Mr. Lieberman to campaign aggressively to win over Republican and unaffiliated voters.

If he does, Democratic strategists say, he may well attract voters to the polls who are likely to support the state’s three Republicans in Congress: Nancy Johnson, Rob Simmons and Christopher Shays.

“He has a Republican vote, that’s the fact,” said Tom Matzzie, the political director of Moveon.org, a liberal group that is backing Mr. Lamont and the Democratic challengers in the three House races. And those voters, he said, are “likely to vote as Republicans in every race.”

Oh, the irony: the zealous within the party have fought hard to trade models in a seat that was safe for them, and in so doing may have jeopardized their chances at the real prize: control of the House. The Connecticut Senate seat was going to stay in the Democratic hands regardless, and I still think that even an alientated Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats. However, if the gung-ho strategy to put Lamont in that seat leads to increased chances that Reps retain those three seats, then this was quite a strategic blunder on behalf of some in the Democratic party.

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6 Responses to “The Lieberman Effect?”

1. Outside The Beltway | OTB Says:
   August 28th, 2006 at 7:42 am

   Lieberman Could Save House for Republicans…

   An article in today’s NYT discusses the concerns of Democratic leaders that Joe Lieberman’s “independent” senate campaign will bring more Republicans to the polls, hurting the Democrats’ chances of winning a couple of key …

2. Jan Says:
   August 28th, 2006 at 10:24 am

   I just thought you’d want to know that the last paragraph of your block quote is garbled.

3. Dr. Steven Taylor Says:
   August 28th, 2006 at 10:57 am

   Thanks. I had some problems with mornign when posting it and fixed the text I had written, but did not proof the quoted text.

4. Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) Says:
   August 28th, 2006 at 11:54 am

   How likely is it that Lieberman will attract Republicans who would not otherwise vote?

   The argument quoted by the NYT is based on the premise that Lieberman will bring significant Reps who would otherwise stay home and that this will offset any additional Dems who might be energized by Lamont.

   And then when we turn to individual House districts, I would venture that that there are more Lamont-energized Dems in the winnable districts currently held by Reps than there are Lieberman-energized Reps who would otherwise stay home in those same districts.

5. Matthew Shugart Says:
   August 28th, 2006 at 11:56 am

   Oops, I guess I should have logged out as “guestblogger” a while ago!

6. Talmadge East Says:
   August 29th, 2006 at 11:58 am

   I am ashamed I sent that turncoat bastard money.