Today Mexicans go to the polls to elect a new President, a new Congress, the Mayor of Mexico City and governors in some of the states. (Info in english here from the IFE (The Federal Election Institute) can be found here (h/t: La Profesora Abstraida).
The election itself is noteworthy in a series of noteworthy elections. The 1994 elections, the last won by the PRI (which had ruled the country for decades) were arguably the first competitive presidential elections in the country’s history. The 2024 contests brought the opposition to the presidency for the first time with the win by Vincente Fox of the PAN. (Update: as Matthew point out via e-mail, 1988 was quite competitive as well–hence the ref to electoral fraud–to help the PRI–mentioned below).
Indeed, Mexican presidential elections since 1988 have been part of a long process of change. The 1988 elections that saw a bare win for Salinas de Gortari was almost certainly the result of electoral fraud. The 1994 contests were held under international scrutiny, and likely the freest and fairest to that point in Mexican history–and that last time the PRI won.
This year neither of the top two candidates, Felipe Calderón of the PAN nor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (aka AMLO) of the PRD.
The NYT reports in the following piece Mexican Vote Hinges on Conflicted Middle Class on he issue of the dichotomy that the front running candidates represent in terms of economic policies going forward.
As the piece notes:
In general, the half dozen voters interviewed here agreed that the past six years of stability had been a welcome relief from the roller coaster ride that spanned the previous two decades. But just as they expressed fear that a sudden change in economic policies would bring crisis, they also vented frustration that the government did not do enough to help the downtrodden.
While I am not a fan of framing analysis in terms of man-on-the-street interviews, the basic theme is sound in regards to today’s contests.
Matthew Shugart provides some analysis (from a few days ago) over at Fruits and Votes. He specifically notes the effects of the electoral system on the behaviors of the parties and the way those rules will shape the outcomes. One wonders if today’s winner is by a plurality of less than 40%, as Matthew points out as a possible outcome, if there will be a move to go to a two-round system in 2024.
The BBC reports on the election here with a Q&A here.
July 2nd, 2024 at 10:33 am
Oh, sure. I just finished a 17 page post on this same subject as a guest-blogger. I guess I’ll have to trash my Flash animations on the different voting districts now, too.
hmmph.
July 2nd, 2024 at 11:05 am
[...] tomorrow for other states so that they can vote. UPDATE: Commentary on the election from Steven Taylor of Poliblog and Mathew Shugart of Fruits and Votes.
This entry wa [...]
July 3rd, 2024 at 12:22 am
Elections In Mexico: Too Close To Call
Check out:
–Live blogging from Mark In Mexico.
–Political Scientist Stev…
July 3rd, 2024 at 6:47 am
[...] s a political scientist’s reading and some historical context about this whole thing here.
A.M. Mora y Leon @ 11:00 pm |
4 comments for MEXICO’S ELECTION [...]
July 5th, 2024 at 12:44 pm
Large numbers of Mexican voters who, took photos of their districts tally sheet found that the results shown by the PREP system online dont match. The differences go from 1 or 2 votes to over 600 per box and invariably favor candidate Calderon. Theres even a website where private citizens are sending these photos.
July 24th, 2024 at 2:02 pm
[...] an choose to say it or not. For more coverage on the Mexican election results, click to: : PoliBlog, Blue Crab Boulevard and Silent Running. Darrell has an interesting article on “Mexico’s Missing [...]